WASHINGTON — Despite securing the release of five top detainees from the prison at Guantanamo Bay in exchange for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, there are few indications that the Taliban will head into peace talks with the Afghan government any time soon.
The peace process is virtually on hold anyway until it’s clear who will succeed Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Results of the second round of the Afghan presidential election Saturday won’t be known until July, and it will be months before the winner will be able to set up his administration and lay the groundwork for possible talks. It’s also unclear what role the Obama administration can or is willing to play to coax the Taliban into negotiating.
The Taliban say exchanging Bergdahl, held by Afghan militants for nearly five years, for the five detainees is a victory for their side. Still, U.S. and former and current Afghan officials say the transfer is evidence that the two sides can come together and deal peacefully. They say they hope the deal will bolster the influence of more moderate members of the Taliban interested in reconciliation talks.
Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel says the swap could provide a “new opening” that can produce a peace agreement.
When Obama appeared in the Rose Garden with Bergdahl’s parents after their son was released, he said the U.S. would continue to support an Afghan-led process of reconciliation but didn’t offer any specifics.
Obama didn’t mention the Taliban or the peace effort in a major foreign policy speech he delivered late last month at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, N.Y.
Obama has made “encouraging, if vague” gestures toward helping with Afghan-led peace talks, said Kate Clark of the Kabul-based Afghan Analysts Network, who has tracked events in the country for years. “In reality though, the U.S. is on its way out and the swap looks like a clearing up of unfinished business before its troops leave at the end of 2014.”
“Whether the release of the five men might now aid reconciliation is unknown. They may be useful for negotiations, or many years in detention may have hardened them to thoughts of compromise.”
Ronald Neumann, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, said he’s not convinced that the swap will have any impact on prospects for peace talks and he doubts the U.S. has much of a role to play if they ever materialize.
“No talks are imminent,” he said. “I don’t see anything happening anytime soon and by the time you get there, the Bergdahl swap will be ancient history.”
The deal did help mend a fissure in the Taliban ranks, according to a former Afghan government official with close ties to the palace, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to discuss the exchange. For years, moderate Taliban leaders willing to engage in peace talks have been under pressure from unrepentant Taliban foot soldiers. Now that those soldiers have witnessed the successful prisoner deal, the former official said they will be less fearful that peace talks are a sellout to the West or the U.S.-backed Afghan government.
Already, Afghan forces have taken the lead in the fight, making it harder for the Taliban to argue that they are waging war against a foreign occupying force. The eventual exit of U.S. and other international forces that have trained Afghan security forces means the insurgents increasingly are fighting other Afghans. Rising fatalities among Afghan policemen, soldiers and civilians only weaken the Taliban’s campaign for the hearts and minds of the population — a reason that also could make peace talks more appealing to the militants, the former official said.
On the flip side, both the moderate and hard-line members of the Taliban feel emboldened by the deal. Their leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, called it a significant victory. Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid said the group still has no interest in peace talks with either the government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai or his successor.
Because the Afghan government was not party to the negotiations, the Taliban feel they have been given a shot of international stature or recognition, which makes Karzai’s government appear impotent.
“This negotiation has legitimized the Taliban, the organization that safeguarded the 9/11 al-Qaida perpetrators and ruled Afghanistan through atrocities,” Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon, R-Calif., chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a hearing Wednesday on the prisoner exchange.